Tropical Cyclone Activity for April 19, 2014

 

Tropical Weather Discussion



Pelican Pete's Weather - on Saturday, April 19, 2014 at:




    Good Evening Mates!

 

Color Text Coding of The Brown Pelican Newsletter:

  • Dark Blue = Headers and Titles
  • Light Blue= NWS - Informational Titles
  • Purple = Our Thoughts Header
  • Light Purple = Our Thoughts
  • Red = Dangerous Information
  • Orange = Caution Information


As I mentioned late last week, the forecast guidance was consistent in developing some sort of low pressure system east of the Bahamas around April 19th. After dropping this forecast system earlier this week, the forecast guidance are now once again forecasting that the sub-tropical jet stream which is expected to remain quite active across the Gulf of Mexico will lead to the development of a low pressure system just east of Cape Canaveral, Florida during the day on Saturday.

  • The European model guidance is by far the strongest of the guidance and shows a low pressure system that dives east-southeastward to near the northern Bahamas by Sunday before it lifts northward into the open Atlantic next week.
  • The GFS model guidance is faster with the energy that leads to this development and thus causes this system to be a weak trough of low pressure instead.
  • The Canadian model guidance also is siding towards a weaker trough-like scenario.
  • Here are my thoughts: I think what we will see is a piece of energy traverse the Gulf of Mexico as early as Thursday night or Friday morning. This will potentially translate into a developing area of low pressure near the central Florida Peninsula later Friday that tracks offshore of eastern Florida on Saturday. This low pressure system could then slowly track east-northeastward passing just north of the Bahamas late this weekend before pulling northward into the open Atlantic sometime next week.

    This low pressure will be non-tropical and it likely will remain that way as there will not be enough time for it to acquire any sort of tropical characteristics. Besides, environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable to support any sort of tropical or sub-tropical development.

    At the very least, this low pressure system will bring periods of heavy rain to the central and northern Florida Peninsula on Friday into possibly Saturday and some heavy rainfall to the northern Bahamas this coming weekend.

    European Model Forecast For Saturday:

    If you have questions regarding this tropical discussion, do not hesitate to contact me at watsonwxctr@gmail.com.

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    Introducing the 2014 Hurricane Season Cast of Storms


    Cyclone Activity or Classification Scale

    Active Cyclone Not Active Expired Remnant Low Tropical Invest Tropical Depression Tropical Storm Cat 1 Hurricane Cat 2 Hurricane Cat 3 Hurricane Cat 4 Hurricane Cat 5 Hurricane

     

    Storm No. Active Hurricane Pronunciation Duration Dates Current Strenght Highest Classification Impact (1)
                   
    1 Arthur AR-thur 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    2 Bertha BUR-thuh 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
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    3 Cristobal krees-TOH-bahl 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    4 Dolly DAH-lee 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    5 Edouard eh-DWARD 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    6 Fay fay 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    7 Gonzalo gohn- SAH-loh 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    8 Hanna HAN-uh 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    9 Isaias ees-ah-EE-ahs 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    10 Josephine JOH-seh-feen 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    11 Kyle KY-ull 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    12 Laura LOOR-ruh 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    13 Marco MAR-koe 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    14 Nana NA-na 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    15 Omar OH-mar 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    16 Paulette pawl-LET 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    17 Rene re-NAY 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    18 Sally SAL-ee 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    19 Teddy TEHD-ee 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    20 Vicky VIH-kee 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    21 Wilfred WILL-fred 00/00/2014 - 00/00/2014
    0 Days
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    (1) If Storm does not strike any land area, it will be labeled as FISH.
          - Meaning that the tropical cyclone is or was only a problem to marine interest.


    2013 Tropical Cyclone Tracks



    2014 Seasonal Totals


    Subtropical or Tropical Depressions Tropical Storm Minor Hurricane
    (Cat 1 or 2)
    Major Hurricane
    (Cat 3 - Cat 5)
    0 0 0 0


      This Years Tropical Notes:

    • No Information Available
    • No Information Available
    • No Information Available
    • No Information Available
    • No Information Available